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2011-Aug-06 10-46 (GMT+02:00) Athens
USDCHF P&F Chart

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2011-Aug-06 11-45 (GMT+02:00) Athens

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USD/CHF Weekly Outlook
USDCHF Outlook | Written by ActionForex.com | Aug 06 11 07:39 GMT

USD/CHF dropped to new record low of 0.7578 last week, just inch above mentioned target of 161.8% projection of 0.8519 to 0.8081 from 0.8277 at 0.7568. The pair has been losing some downside momentum but break of 0.7801 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, further decline is still expected. Below 0.7568 will target 200% projection at 0.7401. Though, above 0.7801 will bring stronger rebound instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.1730 is still in progress and there is no signal of reversal yet. Such decline is expected to continue for 138.2% projection of 1.1730 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.6931 which is close to 0.7 psychological level. On the upside, break of 0.8519 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming or we'll stay bearish in the pair....

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.7555

Buy at 0.7555, Target: 0.7690, Stop: 0.7520

Failure to extend intra-day rebound and the subsequent retreat from 0.7788 suggest near term downside risk remains for a retest of record low of 0.7610, break there would extend downtrend to 0.7565/70 (50% projection of 0.8048 to 0.7610 measuring from 0.7788), however, loss of downward momentum would limit downside to 0.7550 and bring rebound later. Above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.7712) would bring another bounce to 0.7788 but break there is needed (this would also penetrate the Ichimoku cloud bottom at 0.7787) to signal a temporary low is formed, bring retracement to 0.7840/50 later.

In view of this, we are inclined to turn long on next decline. Only below 0.7515/20 (61.8% projection of 0.8048-0.7610 measuring from 0.7788) would abort and extend weakness to 0.7500 before prospect of a much-needed retracement of recent decline.

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Swiss currency that eased down versus the greenback after the news that US authorities have reached compromise on the debt ceiling, has once again renewed the record maximum.

Currency strategists at UBS note that franc remains near all-time highs against all of its main counterparts as the uncertainty levels are still high.

According to Switzerland’s Economy Minister, the appreciation of the national currency isn’t temporary and one should expect it to decline soon. The official underline that this would affect the country’s economy. In his view, the unemployment is likely to increase.

UBS specialists give the following forecasts for USD/CHF and EUR/CHF: 0.86 and 1.20 respectively in a month and 0.89 and 1.25 – in 3 months.

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