Фундаментальный анализ от Ducascopy Bank

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Swiss KOF indicator continues downward trend
Thu, 28 Mar 2013 11:07:09 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"The numbers are largely in line with expectations, but the problem everyone has with this indicator is that the numbers are a bit all over the place of late"
- Reto Huenerwadel, economist at UBS

Switzerland's economic momentum slipped for the fifth consecutive month in March, diminishing chances that it will turn a corner next month. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute said a gauge of economic sentiment, which was designed to predict future economic performance in roughly six months, slipped to 0.99 points this month, down from a revised 1.04 points in February. Analysts, however, predicted an improvement to 1.07. However, the index trend now indicates a stabilisation, according to KOF. Despite the decline, Swiss economy managed to expand by 1.0% during the last year, adding to signs that the economy is still gaining pace even despite deepening Eurozone crisis, albeit slowly.

"It appears we are seeing the KOF bottoming out, especially in light of the strengthening in PMI," Bank Sarasin Jan Poser said. "Maybe next month already we'll see that the KOF has actually bottomed (out), reflecting a recovery in the Swiss economy."

Reto Huenerwadel, economist at UBS, said: "The numbers are largely in line with expectations, but the problem everyone has with this indicator is that the numbers are a bit all over the place of late. The numbers are weakening but it is certainly a plus that we are still in positive territory. But there is no way of validating the time series for this indicator, as it is largely a black box indicator."
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[Andrey.Tarasov]

Swiss manufacturing sector contracted
Wed, 03 Apr 2013 06:52:40 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"The latest turbulence in the Eurozone and recent slight appreciation of the Swiss franc has slowed - though not halted - the recovery in Swiss economic activity"
- Credit Suisse

Switzerland's key manufacturing output index contracted in March, as a slight appreciation in the Swiss Franc and renewed weakness in the Eurozone dragged on demand. The Swiss Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.3 points last month, down from 50.8 points in February, below analysts' expectations of a 50.5 reading. A gauge of manufacturing output fell below the 50 threshold, which separates growth from contraction, for a first time since December. Swiss economy expanded in the last quarter of 2012 by 0.2%, while the KOF barometer of Swiss economic sentiment fell less than expected, giving weight to claims the economy is on the verge of turning a corner. The Eurozone is nation's biggest trading partner and confidence in the Swiss manufacturing sector is directly linked to developments in the region.
"The latest turbulence in the Eurozone and recent slight appreciation of the Swiss franc has slowed - though not halted - the recovery in Swiss economic activity," said Credit Suisse and the SVME purchasing managers' association.

"It is doubtful that Switzerland is already on a sustainable recovery path. The economic problems in the Eurozone are having an increasingly strong impact on the Swiss economy," VP Bank economist Bernd Hartmann said.

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[Andrey.Tarasov]

Australian retail sales smash expectations
Fri, 05 Apr 2013 06:51:05 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"Firms in the non-mining economy aren't yet confident about reinvesting"
- Citi economist Josh Williamson

The amount of money spent at Australian retail outlets surged four times faster than initially was expected, due to gains in household goods and department stores, as interest-rate reductions encouraged spending and consumers' confidence. According to the Bureau of Statistics, retail sales grew by 1.3% to A$21.95 billion ($23 billion) from a month earlier, when they increased a revised 1.2%, beating analysts' expectations, which called for a tepid 0.3% gain and posting the biggest back-to-back gain in almost four years. Since November 2011, the Reserve Bank of Australia has made six rate cuts, totalling 1.75 percentage points, stimulating industries outside mining, where investment is predicted to plateau this year. A report also showed that no sectors posted declines, while spending on household goods, at department stores and on other retailing all gained 1.6%.

"Monetary policy is working," Paul Bloxham, chief Australia economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Sydney and a former RBA official, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. "

"There are a number of indications that the substantial easing of monetary policy during late 2011 and 2012 is having an expansionary effect on the economy," Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens's said.
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[Andrey.Tarasov]

Swiss industrial production fell
Tue, 09 Apr 2013 09:46:26 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"The latest turbulence in the Eurozone and recent slight appreciation of the Swiss franc has slowed - though not halted - the recovery in Swiss economic activity"
- Credit Suisse

Swiss industrial output fell significantly during the last three months of 2012, as investors' confidence was hit by the continuous economic slump in the Eurozone, the Swiss Statistics Office said Monday. Country's industrial production expanded by 1.7% in the Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year, when the output surged 7.9%. Meanwhile, the turnover rose by 3.1%, while orders received decreased by 2.4% and orders on hand remained unchanged. Swiss economy expanded in the last quarter of 2012 by 0.2%, while the KOF barometer of Swiss economic sentiment fell less than expected, giving weight to claims the economy is on the verge of turning a corner. The Eurozone is nation's biggest trading partner and confidence in the Swiss manufacturing sector is directly linked to developments in the region.

"The latest turbulence in the Eurozone and recent slight appreciation of the Swiss franc has slowed - though not halted - the recovery in Swiss economic activity," said Credit Suisse and the SVME purchasing managers' association.

"It is doubtful that Switzerland is already on a sustainable recovery path. The economic problems in the Eurozone are having an increasingly strong impact on the Swiss economy," VP Bank economist Bernd Hartmann said.

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Swiss inflation weakened
Wed, 10 Apr 2013 09:57:32 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"The story in my view is that prices for imported goods are still falling, despite the Swiss National Bank's defense of the 1.20 floor"
- David Marmet, economist at Zuercher Kantonalbank

Consumer prices in Switzerland were weaker than previously was expected in March, underlining the Swiss National Bank's view that it needs to maintain the cap it has imposed on the strong Franc. Inflation dropped 0.6% from a year ago and rose 0.2% from the previous month, the Federal Statistics Office said. Analysts, however, expected prices to fall 0.5% year-on-year and rise 0.3% on a monthly basis. In order to prevent deflation and a recession, the SNB capped the Franc at 1.20 per euro in 2011 as investors looking for a safe haven, pushing the currency to record highs, pressuring import prices.

"The story in my view is that prices for imported goods are still falling, despite the Swiss National Bank's defense of the 1.20 floor," said David Marmet, economist at Zuercher Kantonalbank. "This helps the SNB maintain its monetary policy, and I see no signs of it changing. We believe the SNB will maintain the cap well into 2014."

In a separate report, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said that Swiss unemployment rate remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 3.1% last month, from 3.1% in the preceding month, in line with analysts' forecasts.
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[Andrey.Tarasov]

Australian consumer confidence slumped
Thu, 11 Apr 2013 10:09:32 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"This result emphasises how fragile consumer confidence has become in the current environment"
- Westpac chief economist Bill Evans

Confidence among Australian consumers unexpectedly dropped in April after posting big gains in the past two months, the Westpac Banking Corp and Melbourne Institute found. A gauge of consumer sentiment fell 5.1% this month, following gains of 2.0% in March and 7.7% in February. The reading was unexpected as the central bank's record low interest rates that were largely seen as an effective driver for household spending, which boosted Australia's strong retail sales in the first two months of this year. The report also showed that people's attitudes towards their own finances are still insecure and their views on the economic outlook are fragile. Even despite the deterioration, a reading of 104.9 means that optimists are still outnumbering pessimists.

"This is a surprising result," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans. "This result emphasises how fragile consumer confidence has become in the current environment."

"This result emphasizes how fragile consumer confidence has become in the current environment. In fact, the index is now only 1.5% above its level in November 2011, following the Reserve Bank's first cut in this easing cycle and only 0.6% above the print from last November," Mr. Evans said.
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[Andrey.Tarasov]

Australian jobless rate hits high
Fri, 12 Apr 2013 09:29:03 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"Such volatile swings in employment across two months certainly make it difficult to pick a trend"
- Savanth Sebastian, an economist at Commsec

The overall jobless rate in Australia soared to its highest level in more than three years last month, tempering views that the economy strengthened in the beginning of the year, spurred by near record-low interest rates. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistic, the country's unemployment rate rose to a higher-than-expected seasonally adjusted 5.6% in March, up from 5.4% in February. Data also showed that that the number of Australians with work dropped 36,100 in March, with the number of people actively seeking a job falling as well. Latest data is adding to concerns that in the resource-rich economy a recovery, which was seen over recent months, was only tentative.

"Such volatile swings in employment across two months certainly make it difficult to pick a trend," Savanth Sebastian, an economist at Commsec. "Clearly, the answer lies somewhere in the middle."

"While employers are not out there significantly adding to the workforce, they are not out there firing existing staff," he added. "Rather businesses are in a holding pattern, awaiting an improvement in conditions."

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Долгое время программисты Dukascopy Bank работали над интересным проектом под названием VISUAL FOREX. Что это такое? Это программа, позволяющая создавать автоматические торговые стратегии,
используя визуальные логические модули, а не просто программирование. Буквально недавно запустили beta версию программы. Все желающие могут использовать этот софт бесплатно. Ссылку можно найти на официальном веб сайте компании.

[Andrey.Tarasov]

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[Andrey.Tarasov]

Dukascopy TV - теперь доступно на французском языке!
Как мы объявляли ранее, Dukascopy TV (Швейцарское Финансовое Телевидение) стремится предоставить свою продукцию на семи языках. Французское телевидение было запущено сегодня.

В настоящее время продукты Dukascopy TV уже поддерживаются на пяти языках - английском, русском, китайском, французском, и испанском. Следующей целью является внедрение немецких и арабских версий Dukascopy TV.