Фундаментальный анализ от Ducascopy Bank

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Фундаментальный анализ от Ducascopy Bank

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Fundamental Analysis
New Zealand property prices up in February
Wed, 13 Mar 2013 08:04:04 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"Across the rest of the country activity is more modest which is reflected in smaller increases in regional median prices"
- Reinz chief executive Helen O'Sullivan

Property prices in New Zealand rose in February, highlighting the heating property market that is likely to be concerning the central bank, since a supply shortage in some regions is starting to weigh on sales volumes. The national average house price jumped 7.6% last month to $382,000, still below the record $389,000 set in December, while $12,000 higher compared with January, the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand said Tuesday. There were 6,632 houses sold last month, up 7.5% from January, however, in a previous year, from February 2011 to February 2012, sales volumes surged a much more noticeably, by 34.4%. The main constraint on the total number of transactions was the supply shortages in Auckland and Christchurch. Concerns are growing about constantly increasing house costs, as Auckland's population is rapidly growing, while in Christchurch people were looking for new houses as 10,000 homes were destroyed in a series of substantial quakes.

"Across the rest of the country activity is more modest which is reflected in smaller increases in regional median prices," said Reinz chief executive Helen O'Sullivan.

"The continuing reduction in the number of days to sell between this year and last year is also indicative of more buyer pressure in markets across the country."
[ img ]

[Andrey.Tarasov]

"If within the next six months there is no prospect of growth..."
- John Longworth, director general of the BCC

The economy of Britain's capital has been outperforming the rest of the nation's economy since 2007, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. London's economy expanded by 12.4% between 2007 and 2011, compared to the rate between 2.3% and 6.8% across other U.K.'s regions. The performance of London's labour market has also outperformed other parts of the country. Between the final quarter of 2007 and the final quarter of 2012, capital's employment improved by 0.9%, compared to a 1.7% decline in the rest of the country. During the same period, there were 267,000 new job places created, while in the rest of the U.K. 284,000 work places were eliminated. All this has led to a direct impact on the incomes of residents, with the average household income per head in London increasing 30% above the U.K. average.

John Longworth, director general of the BCC, said: "If within the next six months there is no prospect of growth... you might have to consider actually borrowing more money but you should only do it to fund areas that the market would forgive."

"A dire set of U.K. data," said Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. It leaves a "decline in first-quarter gross domestic product looking more likely than not." [ img ]

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Fundamental Analysis
Swiss producer prices up 0.1%
Mon, 18 Mar 2013 08:18:08 GMT

"The inflation path is being shifted down, but overall the picture stays the same"
- Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit

Producer and imports prices in Switzerland improved in February, however, less than initially predicted, reflecting manufacturers' concerns about future economic performance of the country. According to the Federal Statistics, the prices of domestically produced and imported goods increased 0.1% last month, up from a drop of 0.1% in January, but below the expected 0.3% gain. On a yearly basis, prices were 0.1% down, compared to a 0.8% drop a month earlier. At the same time, a gauge of producer prices, which shows the price development of domestically produced products, jumped by 0.4%, while a measure of imported prices dropped 0.7%. The latest data are adding to concerns that despite modest growth, manufacturers are showing unwillingness to increase their spending.

"The inflation path is being shifted down, but overall the picture stays the same," said Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit. "Since the cap was set in 2011, their stance has been relatively unchanged. They've made clear that the ceiling is not for fine-tuning, and I expect the SNB's stance to continue."

"There is no deflation though there is still a disinflationary tendency in some of the CPI components. It means there is still time before we will see any action from the SNB," said ZKB economist David Marmet.
[ img ]

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Fundamental Analysis
BoJ gearing up for radical changes
Tue, 19 Mar 2013 09:12:13 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"Amamiya is the architect of many of the BOJ's existing policy frameworks"
- Yasuhide Yajima, chief economist at NLI Research Institute

A reappointment of Masayoshi Amamiya, a mastermind of quantitative easing, is adding to signs that the Bank of Japan will soon introduce a radical shift in its policy framework. Amamiya, who was earlier admired for his ability to generate new creative banking ideas, will now oversee a key division charged with drafting monetary policy. He was also deeply involved in the creation of the BoJ's current monetary easing tool, its asset buying programme, so his appointment implies smooth policymaking for the new BoJ leadership that takes over this week. Haruhiko Kuroda, Kikuo Iwata and Hiroshi Nakaso will take control of the central bank on March 19, when the current governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, steps down. Japanese central bank is widely expected to ease its monetary policy through increases in purchases of longer-dated government bonds.

"Amamiya is the architect of many of the BOJ's existing policy frameworks. His return now may be to review them and prepare for an overhaul in time for the BOJ's next rate review in April," said Yasuhide Yajima, chief economist at NLI Research Institute in Tokyo.

"The next focal point is whether Kuroda will hold an emergency meeting," before the scheduled April 3-4 board gathering, said Shuichi Obata, senior economist at Nomura Securities Co. in Tokyo.

[ img ]

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Australian economy stabilises
Wed, 20 Mar 2013 08:21:09 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"While further reductions may be required, on the information currently to hand it was appropriate to hold rates steady"
- Reserve Bank of Australia

Australian economy is responding to low interest rates and already starts showing signs of stabilisation, the Reserve Bank of Australia said Tuesday. However, the bank left the door open for another rate cut in case additional boost will be needed. Earlier this month, the RBA kept its benchmark cash rate target at 3% for the second month in a row after lowering interest rates six times since November 2011. A significant pick-up in retail sales as well as overall improvement of property market are both signalling that consumers are more confident about the economy and are showing willingness to increase spending. Moreover, Australian banks are reporting strong profit growth over the year due to improvements in the global economy and are benefiting from more favourable wholesale funding conditions.

"While further reductions may be required, on the information currently to hand it was appropriate to hold rates steady," the Reserve Bank of Australia said in the minutes of its March 5 policy meeting, published today.

"We continue to get a sense that the RBA remains in wait and see mode," said Alvin Pontoh, an Asia-Pacific strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Singapore. "There is some chance that the bank's easing bias is softened at the next communique."
[ img ]

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Swiss economic expectations down to 2.3 in March
Thu, 21 Mar 2013 09:51:10 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"The latest economic surveys indicate a more positive mood on a broad front over recent months"
- Economists at the State Secretariat for Economics

After seven consecutive months of gains a gauge of economic expectations fell in March, indicating that Swiss investors and analysts are now less optimistic about the economic outlook. A report by the Credit Suisse, which issues the indicator in cooperation with the German ZEW economic research institute, showed that the Swiss ZEW investor sentiment dropped by 7.7 points to a level of 2.3 in March, after a reading of 10 in the preceding month. A reading, which is slightly above the 0.0 threshold, indicates optimism and suggests that the analysts surveyed expect a stable economic situation until this year's third quarter. Meanwhile, a measure of current economic situation decreased slightly by 2.4 points and reached a level of 15.6 points this month. Earlier this month, the State Secretariat for Economics said that Swiss economy is now expected to expand by 1.3% this year, while projection for 2014 was raised to 2.1% from 2% growth expected in December.

"The latest economic surveys indicate a more positive mood on a broad front over recent months," economists at the State Secretariat for Economics (SECO) said. "In view of the continuing stability in the domestic economy and a brighter outlook for exports, the opportunities for a further increase in economic growth during the course of this and next year look good."
[ img ]

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Swiss economic expectations down to 2.3 in March
Thu, 21 Mar 2013 09:51:10 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"The latest economic surveys indicate a more positive mood on a broad front over recent months"
- Economists at the State Secretariat for Economics

After seven consecutive months of gains a gauge of economic expectations fell in March, indicating that Swiss investors and analysts are now less optimistic about the economic outlook. A report by the Credit Suisse, which issues the indicator in cooperation with the German ZEW economic research institute, showed that the Swiss ZEW investor sentiment dropped by 7.7 points to a level of 2.3 in March, after a reading of 10 in the preceding month. A reading, which is slightly above the 0.0 threshold, indicates optimism and suggests that the analysts surveyed expect a stable economic situation until this year's third quarter. Meanwhile, a measure of current economic situation decreased slightly by 2.4 points and reached a level of 15.6 points this month. Earlier this month, the State Secretariat for Economics said that Swiss economy is now expected to expand by 1.3% this year, while projection for 2014 was raised to 2.1% from 2% growth expected in December.

"The latest economic surveys indicate a more positive mood on a broad front over recent months," economists at the State Secretariat for Economics (SECO) said. "In view of the continuing stability in the domestic economy and a brighter outlook for exports, the opportunities for a further increase in economic growth during the course of this and next year look good."
[ img ]
Швейцария это не Кипр!(с)

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Swiss sight deposits edged up last week
Tue, 26 Mar 2013 09:40:08 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"As a consequence of the realignment of the financial centre and the planned withholding tax, we assume that a total of hundreds of billions of francs will flow out of Switzerland"
- Juerg Zeltner, head of UBS wealth management

The amount of cash Swiss commercial banks held with nation's central bank edged higher in the week to March 22, adding to signs that investors are getting less anxious over the Eurozone's financial woes. Sight deposits of domestic banks rose to 282 979 million francs last week, up from 282 164 million a week earlier. During the last several months, the amount of currency reserves hold by the SNB, stabilised around 427 billion, as the bank decreased its efforts in defending the country's currency from haven flows. Despite the fact, the Swiss Franc trades versus the shared currency around 1.22 level, the risks for Europe's economy remain too serious to allow the SNB to change its currency cap. However, it is expected that soon the Swiss National Bank could raise the floor.

"As a consequence of the realignment of the financial centre and the planned withholding tax, we assume that a total of hundreds of billions of francs will flow out of Switzerland," said Juerg Zeltner, head of UBS wealth management.

"The economic environment worsened again at the end of last year and the growth outlook was lowered," Fritz Zurbrügg told the daily Aargauer Zeitung, adding that exchange-rate risks were still on the cards as a result.
[ img ]

[Andrey.Tarasov]

Japan and EU to start free trade talks
Tue, 26 Mar 2013 09:29:07 GMT
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

"I believe that today marks a historic event in the history between Japan and the European Union"
- EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht

Japan and the European Union agreed on Monday to launch free trade talks in April, as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is trying to revive the world's third largest economy. A deal is likely to create an additional 1% growth to improve the sluggish economic output in both regions, however, it is facing opposition from European carmakers, who doubt Tokyo's commitment to opening up its market. During 2011, Japan was the EU's seventh largest export market buying 69 billion euros worth of European goods, while the European Union is the third biggest market for Japanese products, importing goods and services for around 52 billion euros. At the moment, trade between the two sides is burdened by a tariffs and restrictions, which, if overcome, would create additional economic growth.

"I believe that today marks a historic event in the history between Japan and the European Union," EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht said in Tokyo after meeting Japanese Trade Minister Toshimitsu Motegi.

"The leaders decided to launch negotiations for an agreement covering political, global and sectorial cooperation," Abe, Van Rompuy and Barroso said in a joint statement, adding talks should start in April.
[ img ]