2011-Oct-08 21-58 (GMT+02:00) Athens

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Last week we identified a bounce towards the 200-day SMA as an area to establish a short NZD/USD position (for those that share our downward bias on the kiwi). Weak NZ economic data, New Zealand ratings downgrades, and vulnerability in the technicals were among the reasons for our bearish outlook. NZD/USD Halts Recovery at 61.8% Retracement with Negative Reversal... The 4H NZD/USD chart shows a market rejected near 0.78, near the 61.8% retracement of a swing from 0.7957 to 0.7470. 4H price action looks heavy as we wind up this week's trading. The RSI is held at 60, a sign that the bearish momentum from the previous downswing is still good. The RSI reading did however rally to a higher peak than that of Sept. 27, but the price peak is lower. This is known as a negative reversal signal. A conventional swing projection from this signal applied to this NZD/USD chart targets 0.7310....

NZD/USD fell on Friday as investors around the world are dumping risky assets, including commodities. The futures markets all got hit, and as a result the Kiwi got sold off. We are selling this pair only now, and waiting for a rally to fade, or perhaps a breaking of the lows to get short as well. Buying simply would be far too dangerous at this point in time, as there are far too many economic dangers out there now. NZD/USD fell hard after initially rising this past week. The Kiwi is a highly sensitive currency when it comes to the commodity markets, and we think that this pair is a sell only pair now. The 0.75 area should be supportive, but if it gives way – look out! This pair is to be sold on rallies, and if we get below that 0.75 level – we would sell there as well. The New Zealand dollar continued lower for another week. Where will it stop? NZIER Business Confidence is the major event this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD The kiwi got a double blow from rating agencies, which downgraded the credit rating of the country.